Jorge Caldeira, Manager Technical Marketing, JELLINBAH GROUP, of Australia will be speaking on Day 2 of the Eurocoke Summit on 'Being Technically Creative Under Coal Tightness.' Jorge shared with us details of his background, thoughts on challenges for coke production and what he's most looking forward to at this year's Summit.
* Please note that these are Mr. Caldeira's own personal thoughts and do not mean to represent Jellinbah Group's views or readings of the market / scenario / fundamentals.
Please briefly describe your background in the coke and steel sector.
Graduated in 1977 as Metallurgical Engineer in Rio, MSc in Coal Science at Penn State in 1981. Researcher on coal & coke projects for CSN-Brazilian National Steel for 12 years and 4 years as GM coke-making operations at CSN. Since 1993 being a technical consultant on coal & coke matters.
What do you see as the greatest challenge(s) to long term coke production?
Actually new challenges show up once and a while. Anyway, environmental issues and final production cost seem to have been driving thoughts and decisions lately and will likely continue to rule in the longer term.
What are your thoughts on the impact to met coal prices due to Chinese steel production, new met coal mines in Mongolia, Africa, and Columbia.
No doubt Chinese easily stir the market whether upward or downward, overnight. We cannot forget about the growing demand in India and in Brazil in years to come. Brazil demand for coal is likely to go from current 19.1 million (15.8 mio coking + 3.3 mio PCI) to 34.5 million (27.4 mio. coking + 7.1 mio. PCI) by 2016 if all the projects in the pipeline come true.
As for Mongolia, it will be targeting China mainly for the next few years with less impact in the rest of the world. Mozambique can be important had them solving the infrastructure and political issues. Colombia is promising but again logistics can be a bottleneck.
In summary, I think demand will happen before these 3 new players can become real players.
Do you foresee any more consolidation in the steel industry?
Difficult to predict but yes I think there is room and synergies for it.
Are you seeing or anticipating any impact due to carbon taxes?
Not in the short term
Will the Indian market advance as quickly as projected?
You'd better believe it.
When I attended Global Steel in 1995, a keynote address by Indian authority gave note of steel production at about 32 million tons and forecast for a 'India - Vision 2020' for 100 million tons.
I did attend another conference in 2011 when the keynote authority then said they already reached 67 million tons of steel and new reading for India 2020 would be 200 million because 100 million was next corner.
Will environmental regulations continue to become more stringent or have we seen the worst?
I think they will continue.
Finally, we are pleased to have you on board for the conference this year, what are you hoping to gain from the event?
Update and strengthening the network. That simple.